Peak plateau with fracking oil? Good luck with that! The World is already on a bumpy plateau with serious consequences. If US enters a plateau then the World enters decline, this will have serious ramifications. No economy can keep tight oil on a plateau at current production rates of 13Mbarrels/day, if there will be some sort of plateau for US it will be well below that level.

When things fail, people dabbling in abstractions voluntarily become pied pipers, and dabbling in more abstraction. When things fail and people are hands on, they just keep the habits and try to squeeze as much of what they are doing... These exact abstract people will be with hair on fire when oil production will be 25% lower blaming left and right being politically radical. He will blame Trump on turbo mode... Meanwhile people producing will keep on producing and be over-bussy with actual field problems. This situation might not be solvable at all that's why SPR and cutting exports was very important as you said for years now.