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 Stuff  To Think About 
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  Quote Stuff 

 

"Given that oil is priced on an international market, increased domestic oil production will not do much to lower prices for U.S. consumers, as any gains in U.S. production will be spread across the international market. Greater reliance on domestic oil resources in substitution for imports will reduce the vulnerability of the economy to oil supply disruptions, although not by much."

                                                                                                                                                               Council On Foreign Relations 

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This is an important chart for all the greater "rig efficiciency" believers and the surprise production increases that occured in 2023. 
This would imply that because drilling rigs did drill more holes in the ground in 2023, more completions occurred and production went up in 2023, in spite of falling rig counts. Historically the Permian has been completing about 5,400 wells each year (2018-2019, 2021-2022) then in 2023 those completions went to 6,000. 
But if you research this more closely, DUC's in the Permian declined 450 plus in 2023 (Enverus, Novi) and those did not have anything to do with fewer rigs drilling more holes in the ground. 
The greater efficicency thing played a very minor role in the Big Surprise of 2023. It was DUC's getting completed. 
In 2024 Permian completions are down in the low 400's per month, a more realistic number of completions per month given the current rig count.  DUC's are pretty much gone at current  prices.Permian production is growing only marginally, as a result, and by year end may even be flat.  
Below, U.S. associated gas flaring from tight oil wells up 20% YOY in 2023. We now flare more gas than Nigeria !! 
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I do this blog stuff for fun, not to make money. I am not trying to sell you anything.  

The materials provided on this site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.  I may make data related mistakes  occasionally; if you use my opinions about oil reserves or shale well economics for financial purposes, to buy or sell stocks, your nuts. Don't do that. If I have used a photograph incorrectly it was for educational purposes and I have done my best of to give credit where credit is due. My stories are all true, slightly embellished, perhaps, but true; I don't change names to protect the guilty. I am as accurate as possible about history and historical facts; I work very hard at that.All rights are reserved, whatever that means.  Don't blame me,  I didn't do it.   

                                                                                                                                                     Mike Shellman 
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