Mike is free to delete but then it will be USA ( United States of Amnesia -- Gore Vidal )

''President Trump will not be able tame inflation, and in fact I believe that his policies of cutting taxes and demanding lower interest rates will only make things worse. He makes the claim that increasing energy production will lower costs, but the fact is that U.S. energy production is already near all-time highs and lowering oil prices by 10 or 20% isn't going to eliminate inflation or lower costs by very much at all. It wouldn't affect things like insurance costs for example. Home prices have nearly doubled in the past 6 years, and the only way to bring this down is to build million of new houses to increase supply, which I doubt will happen. Tax cuts to put more money in people's pockets are actually the wrong remedy here, and will not only increase inflation, but will blow up the debt even more. Trump will be lucky if he can cut the deficit by 25% in the next 4 years, and can forget about ever getting a balanced budget no matter how many agencies and personnel Elon Musk manages to eliminate. Another thing is that Trump wants to bring back a lot of manufacturing to the USA, which I agree with as it's a bad idea to be too dependent on China. The problem is that American workers are extremely expensive, so anything made here will cost a lot more than the same thing made overseas. There's just no easy way out of this mess, and the root of the problem is that Americans in general are spoiled, greedy, and unwilling to make any real sacrifices. ''

Trump 2.0 will it be feast or famine ?

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2024/11/economic-feast-or-famine-ahead-opinions.html

Devon is 6 billion in debt. 300 million a year in interest. Doesn't look like good cash flow in any other metric. With the higher prices we have had, they should be out of debt if it was decent margins. They are trumpeting this as a win? Borderline pathological reporting.

I think Messler has a very short term perspective. He is retired after all.

I don't believe these companies are demonstrating resilience at all. Eventually, cash cows end up on the BBQ.

I would think a veteran oilfield service provider would look past financial engineering metrics like EV or EBITDA of E&P Co.s to the condition of the service companies to proclaim

"There’s an economic term we can shoehorn in here, too. . . . . where producers focus on returns on assets rather than re-investment. In the energy upstream proved, developed, producing wells (PUDs) are cash cows producers seek to milk "

Thanks for this, Stephen. I hope you are doing well?

I'm not a financial analyst, I am not even much of a shale oil analyst, just an oilman who understands well economics very well. I can assure everyone at $68/$1 most HZ tight oil wells being drilled today are not cash cows. The sector CAN self finance its current rig count, but no more and it is not deleveraging debt. Its actually adding debt, as one would expect with consolidations. The authors example, Devon, below. IMO a debt to equity ratio of 0.61 is not very healthy when the oil you produce is declining 85+% the first 32 months of production life: Morningstar suggests Devon's breakeven price for oil is $36...sorry, ain't buyin' that. The incremental lift costs per BOE is this article for DVN I do not accept, sorry.

Be very weary of any analysis using BOE as the benchmark and determining what the netback is per BOE. Robert, downhole, is absolutely correct; the two revenue streams (now close to 50/50 in the Delaware Basin) should be analyzed seperately.

I've been thru all this greater "efficiency" stuff a lot recently and I don't see in SEC filings where well costs have come down a lot. They are, as we know, going to skyrocket with tariffs on steel. DVN makes a Lake Erie of produced water every day in the Delaware. Its 2023 wells were not so good and its EUR's are falling. Its 2024 wells may be better on a short term basis, but long term, no.

Consolidations in a mature oil play generally always mean the end is near. I do not agree with RBN's charts at all, but then again, I am not an analyst, just an oil man.

There are two ways to look the U.S. tight oil sector, one from the standpoint of an investment for the sake of dividends, or two, from the standpoint of long term sustainability and the ability to deliver the goods for our nation's long term future. I've learned not to get in chicken fights with dividend owners...they are worse than royalty owners. If that is one's definition of "good for America," dividends, knock yourself out.

On the later, the long term future of tight oil in our country, everything these corporations do are for money and they could care less what the future looks like four years from now for our country.

On this article,

Good morning Stephen.

I would add a couple of things to your and hopefully all other commentaries on PB LTO.

The metric that truly counts on production efficiency is not oil production per rig as EIA reports but oil production per foot of lateral.

BOED is BS and a good analyst and/or reporter would beat the bushes to report BOPD and Mcfd separately and truly state the nature of the gas as sold, flared or an expense item. An expose on the later point would be great including graphics on gas sales to production ratio, gas flaring to production ratio and gas sales revenue net to wells which would account for negative WAHA; all vs time.

Thanks.