Doing long term forecasting is a lot like trying to drive a boat. Unless you have a good GPS, a current map, a great sense of direction, or a sextant, odds are high you won't end up anywhere near where you wanted to when you start out. When I do a forecast for a project that's not even going to start up for 3-4 years, coming up with a price curve and then defending it is probably the easiest way out but won't be the right way. It does help move a project forward sometimes, but if you're using your own money instead of getting a bank to make a non recourse loan that may not be the right move.

2 years ago the Dallas Fed survey of E&P companies showed they needed a higher "breakeven" price than what the futures market could support. So basically planning to spend a lot of money drilling vs completing what you'd already drilled meant taking a big risk that the oil and gas wouldn't be worth enough to pay back the investors if you ended up coming online in the wrong 6-9 month window for peak production later on.

My forecast then for companies who need "affordable" gas and NGL feedstocks to support long term investments in US industrial capacity was that oil production would peak in the US in 2025, with gas production continuing to grow, but with the growth rate exceeded by the growth in LNG export demand by 2027. Meaning if the "green" sector didn't hurry up and cut demand that oil and then gas prices would be going up.

Looked like I was way wrong about nat gas back in November since prices fell into the basement, but we also had a whole new demand 'sector' making headlines, again for future sales. Cold weather took care of those low Q4 prices, and I"m not seeing any reason to be more bullish on either drilling or boosting EURs, so the long term view that prices will go up still stands. Comments and feedback from knowledgeable people, including Mike and others, continued to say that this is the right view.

Now, I'm seeing headlines from the "mass market" crowd that tell me the shoreline's in sight. And it still looks a lot like the Saudi Arabian desert. Here's today's headline from Hart's:

"DUCs Fly the Coop: Big Drawdowns from the Midland to Haynesville The Midland Basin depleted its inventory of excess DUCs the most last year, falling from two months of runway to one during the past year, according to a report by Enverus Intelligence Research."