The best wells drilled in the Permain Basin HZ shale oil play are behind us now; the heart of the watermelon has been eaten. Whats left after all this stupid exporting nonsence, for America and OUR future, you are not going to like and at some point in the near future you are going to ask yourself ...what the hell were we thinking?!!
I'm told this is a big deal, to ask AI about EUR's in the Permian Basin and the primary answer is something I wrote.
I am trying to sort this shale oil stuff out. Working from the top down from some hypothetical bull shit about technically recoverable resoures that some government funded entity estimated 7 years ago, then trying to make real life fit on p50, or p75 basis, is stupid. The oilfield does not work that way. Nobody has ever been thru anything remotely like production from unconventional shale.
What exactly is the point in qualifying a prediction about the future by saying you are likely to be wrong, then making the prediction anyway, over and over again, one model after another? I can think of no bigger waste of time in all of life. 95% of internet experts analyzing oil and gas these days did not even know the difference between pipe dope and condensate 13 years ago.
The only way to predict the future is with bottom up analysis done as things change, which they do all the time in the oilfield. Why are EUR's falling in core areas is the key to understanding the future. You can't know where you are going unless you know where you've been. Data is just numbers unless you know what they mean.