...And Shale Oil 'Breakevens' (ug!) Goin' Up !

This is the first time I've seen a major data-sell outfit include dividend obligations and the incremental cost per BO for servicing debt in the same "breakeven" package. I find it rather remarkable, actually. It should have ALWAYS been applicable. I am unclear of Rystad's parameters for these exact costs, but I am buying into the $62 big time, save to say its actually about $30 higher than that.

Next thing to hope for from the MSM is an open admission of how much actually paying down debt adds to the breakeven calculation...AND the cost of well retirement. There is still $140 plus billion of outstanding long term debt in the Permian Basin alone, public and private, including outfits like Devon ($6B), FANG ($13B); $5B here, 3B over there x 15 different companies and pretty soon you are talking real bucks. Exxon, Chevron, Oxy, Conoco; all the big boys in the Permian have BIG debt. And for the record, their "assets" covering that debt are taking a big hit.

The real price of oil needed by the U.S, shale oil sector to carry on, keep drilling wells, pay investors, pay long term debt completely off and pay for plugging, abandonment and decommissioning is over $90. Sustained. That is the cold, hard truth that nobody will say...except here on oilystuff.com.

I always get a kick of out of the breakeven prices applied to the KSA for maintaining its society, and environment, when American ANALysts ignore ours completely.

Look at GOR in Reeves County and the portion of associated gas that now makes up the production stream from HZ wells in that county in the mighty Delaware Basin. Wow! Maybe the U.S. shale oil industry needs much higher natgas prices more than higher oil prices.

The sooner this all sinks in the sooner we can get past this stupid drill baby, drill plan, realize how little affordable oil (and natural gas) we have left in the United States and stop exports...start racking back for our own long term hydrocarbon savings. For our kids. At the moment the cyotes are managing the chicken coop and they are lying to you every chance they can. YOU are allowing them to get away with it when you vote.

I am pleased to see this, above, from Rystad. The last five posts we've made on Forum Stuff, about Berman changing course, goat pasture, green chickens, APP Basin natural gas, etc. have received 9,000 views, some requests for podcasts and an interview with a MSM big dog. Declined, of course. All. I can't talk about American energy policy without saying bad words; its just the sumbitch I am.