This image from the United States Geological Society (USGS) dovetails the Berman (Supetra etal.; 2021) chart discussion elsewhere in Forum Stuff. It is a structure map on the top of the Wolfcamp formation in the Permian Basin. The grey area essentially outlines the entire Permian Basin which was included in the 2016 and 2018 USGS assessments of technically recoverable tight oil. The pink cores outlined in each sub-basin (Mike), represent 10-11 partial counties by areal extent and from these cores roughly 85% of ALL Permian tight oil production has been produced. There are an estimated 48,000 HZ wells in these cores, some of them drilled as close to together as 500 feet, lateral to lateral.
In the Midland Basin three benches produce roughly 75% of shale oil extracted in the sub-basin; in the Delware there are five productive benches that produced 90% of all production.
The pink cores do not represent the productive limits of each sub-basin, however, and some 6-8,000 additional wells have been drilled outside the cores, in less productive acreage that some people like to refer to as Tier 3/4 acreage. I sometimes refer to this flank acreage outside the cores as goat pasture.
The USGS recoverable resource assessments covered the entire Permian Basin outlined in the two images and placed enourmous technically recoverable tight oil resources everywhere, even as far north as Lubbock, and has messed with people's heads, badly. There are lots of people in the U.S. who want you to believe if its technically recoverable, its all going to come out of the ground, all it takes is more money.
The actual cores of the HZ shale oil play in the Permian represent approximately 20-25% of the assessment areas and productive limits, where wells have been drilled and found bascially no commerical shale oil, about 40% of the assessment area. The rest, where theoretical technically recoverable, as yet unfound resources lie, would not support a goat for 1 day. Lets call that Never-Never Land.
In their 2021 paper, Saputra etal predicts there can be 100,000 more HZ wells drilled in flank, Tier 3/4 acreage, outside the cores, and 21 G BO +/- more oil can be produced over and above the 16 G BO that has been produced from the cores. The authors even believe wells can be drilled in Never-Never Land and more shale oil produced. Yikes. No word on what the price of natgas would have to be to make THAT happen.
Again, thus far less than 15% of Permian shale oil has come from flank areas.
Core areas and sweet spots within those cores are "sweet" for a reason. They represent the best rock and the oil and gas business always drills its best stuff, first. As you can see in the structure map the lowest top of the Wolfcamp lies pretty much in the cores. A net isopach map would show the Wolfcamp correlative interval to be the thickest in the core, a function of deposition and how sediments washed into the basin and stacked, bottom up. The interval in the core has the best oil saturations, the highest initial GOR, better nanopermability, higher carbonate content, the best thermal gradients, total organic carbon and the lowest sulphur, nitrogen, etc. contents...everything in the core kitchens are perfect to cook and produce the most oil when hydraulically frac'ed.
Cores are where they make the highest volumes of oil and the most money. The mudstone (shale) down structure, in higher structural areas, is thinner, generally has higher water saturations and is much gassier. Nobody is anxious to drill Tier 3/4, non-core goat pasture at oil prices of less than $100 and $5 natgas, sustained. Given declining liquids productivity in the cores, rising GOR, rising WOR and obvious well inteference, if it was good in the goat pasture they'd be out there right now drilling the snot out of it.
About the two cores in the Permian....the shale sector doesn't call it low-grading, they call it high-grading. There is a reason for that.
Mike- it amazes me that something that is on track to make $2.2 trillion dollars over 25 years or so can exert so much influence on a world economy that will produce close to $4,000 trillion over that same time frame. That is leverage. In addition to your export concerns, think about the amount of government debt and our tacit acceptance of 2-3% gdp growth in the era of the internet, ai, and other this other sh** that's supposed to solve all the world problems. We used to knock out 4+% gdp growth prior to smartphones. Hell, we can't even grow the economy when people give away their oil and natural gas at cost!!! We squandered the opportunity to grow at 5% with this slug of energy and put a lot of problems to bed.
If this is true... then we clearly are on the precipice of the apocalypse...
I wonder how much of this $$$ is being allocated to ensure oil that might otherwise stay in the ground... cuz it's a money loser... gets extracted
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/musk-feds-have-magic-money-computers-issue-payments-out-thin-air
Yep, Chris Wright joined my Most Captured list.
I wish to say that not only would have been "nice" for Sheffield to tell the truth about remaining drillable locations in its block in Midland Basin, it would have also been morally correct, ethical and patriotic to our nation and to our State. He did no such thing and to me is on the top 10 most wanted lists for lying to America about its oil future.
The thing is .... most people do NOT want the truth... they want to be told (as Art Berman recently did) that there is 60 years of oil left... and that by then we won't need oil cuz solar panels and EVs...
If they were told the truth they would lose their minds...
Recall the infamous quote by Jean Claude Juncker -- when it gets really bad --- you have to lie.
It's so bad that someone in the government recently called Art in and said Art -- we need you to stop scaring the herd... we are very close to the edge of the cliff... and we need to keep them calm
Given it's a globalized world (how many of the parts used in extracting oil are imported... from Germany China etc...) the entire world headed for something much worse than a disaster...
We are headed towards an Apocalypse.
But then that was always a guaranteed outcome when you have 8+B fellas who basically are eating a finite substance. https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/collapse-and-cannibalism
https://x.com/GreyHairOpsGuy/status/1899820529713860839
Goat Pasture?
"I'm picturing a very relaxed, free-range discussion happening in 'Goat Pasture.' Am I on the right track?"
Diamondback Energy plans to drill 460 wells in 2025
Story by TheFly
Its gotta. Its close to $15 billion in debt.
Drain it baby, drain it.
"To be able to deliver the sand concentrations to perforations out near the toe of a 18,000 foot later they have to pump that stuff at 80 BPM at 7,000 PSI. That makes the ground shake and the porta potties on location tremble. They'll have to get more horsepower from somewhere... or nuke it."
When all is lost I vote to drop mini nukes down the holes... to hell with these laterals ... just bomb that shale back into the stone age and release an ocean of oil!!! Hot damn ... we will be able to live large on that sucker... cancer rates would go up a fair bit... but that's a small price to pay to keep the wheels greased
These are very helpful GOR charts, thank you, sir.
Berman says technology will save the day and I am wandering what that will be...they can not drill wells any faster, or longer, or frac them any cheaper. Steel and water costs, going in and coming out, are going to go sky high.
Can't they just frac harder? (sarc)
Midland County is NOT goat pasture, its primo, core, sweet stuff that is overdrilled and pressure depleted. Above is just an example of numerous wells now being drilled in that country the past several years.
Exxon is putting lipstick on its Midland County pig by drilling plus 15,000 foot laterals wherever it can find a sliver of room, even if the units to facilitate those long laterals are mostly illegal allocation wells. That can't last too much longer, then Midland County, once the top producer in the entire Permian Basin HZ play, will go to the back of the bus.
Next?
Martin County, currently the No. 1 producing county in the Texas part of the Permian Basin HZ play. Not goat pasture, Martin County. I drove thru Martin County several months ago; I don't see that there is enough room in that entire county to put a porta pottie anymore. There, like Midland County, things appear to have detoriated in just a year.
The folks that suggest there are 10 more years of Tier 1/2, $45 breakeven, two year payout wells in the Midland Basin are pullin' your leg, trying to get you to subscribe to their stuff. No way.
Midland Basin is supposedly where drill baby, drill is going to make the U.S. energy dominate. That will apparently have to happen back toward the east, in Reagan and Glasscock, Irion and Howard Counties, where analysts believe shale oil grows on trees, just like goats.
This is a very current data set of GORs by a major HZ shale oil producer in the Midland Basin that is getting very nervous about remaining drillable locations. There are two things to see in this chart, one.) the rate of increase in GOR of wells drilled in 2023 and 2024. This operator's 'hood is in Midland and Martin Counties where I have already shown you both entire counties are in, or about to walk through the bubble point door to the other side, as evidenced by two.) year to year GORs for all wells this company has drilled in the sub-basin since the get-go. Gas goes up, liquid looses its drive mechansim to the well bore, begins to decline, gas wanders up for a while longer then eventually associated gas declines, as does GOR. Death is near.
Its dumb to look at the forrest and not see the trees. The "trees" are really big operators drilling the snot out of densely populated core areas. You can learn more from watching the big boys in their favorite spots (trees) than you can by looking at the big forrest. 87% of all Permian HZ shale production comes from clumps of trees in the forrest.
I think there must be some vertical Spraberry wells mixed in with this mess, acquired in leasehold transactions and/or mergers, none of which would have been drilled after 2012-2013. Some of the weird looking GOR spikes are likely algo hiccups.
There are three primary benches in this sub-basin and 2 more secondary-tertiary benches; a lot of this stuff is already drilled on <550 foot spacing and there are lots of domestic problems between children and parents.
When they can no longer drill monster wells (IP60-180) that are three miles long, because they are out of room, the Midland Basin is going to freak some folks out with how fast it falls.
0$/mmbtu! wow!
Just watched a combo-curve demo focused upon Midland Basin oil eur's per foot. Used 15,000 wells. P50 number 18 barrels per foot. That is scary. Kind of reminds you of the old joke about the preacher asking for people to confess their weekly sins "I wouldn't atold that one...". They are trying to sell their new software, might want to rent u-hauls for the layoff crowds instead.
I couldn't find the articles that had mentioned the fire, but found another in qcintel.
US Permian gas pipeline fractures after earthquake, fire contained
Hi Mike. I saw a couple articles mention that right after that quake a gas pipeline ruptured nearby. Other than a one sentence mention I can't seem to find any info. Do you know anything about additional damage from the quake?
I believe that makes seven 5.0 or more magnitude quakes in the Permian Basin since 2020.
Great post. Arguments are focusing. Water Disposal and remaining runway. Takes me back to the discussions on the Oil Drum in 2004/5ish regarding Ghawar.