On April 17th, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office is expected to impose tariffs of up to $1.5 million per call per port for ships made in China, and $500,000 to $1 million if the ocean carrier owns a single ship made in China or even has one on order from a Chinese shipyard. 1/

Ocean carriers have announced that in order to reduce tariffs they will skip smaller ports like Seattle, Oakland, Boston, Mobile, Baltimore, New Orleans, etc.

Some shippers have said they will simply shift capacity that serves the United States to other trade routes altogether. /2

This would be horrible for jobs in and around those ports, and really bad for the businesses, both importers and exporters, that use those ports. Huge additional costs will be incurred as trucks and trains travel hundreds of additional miles to major ports at each cost. 3/

Likewise, major ports (LA, Long Beach, Houston, and NYC) will not be able to keep up with the onslaught of additional volumes and will likely become congested, similar to what we saw during Covid. 4/

The craziest part of the original proposal is the requirement that within 7 years, 15% of US exports must travel on an American-made, American-crewed ship. 5/

There are only 23 American-made and American-crewed container ships in the world today, and all of them service domestic ocean cargo (Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, etc.). They are all tiny compared to today’s megaships, and they aren’t even sailing to foreign ports. 6/

The US didn’t produce any container ships in 2024. And the number we produce in any year rounds down to zero. The reason is that American-made 3,000 TEU container ships cost the same price as modern 24,000 TEU container ships from China. 7/

One shipyard in China built more commercial ships last year than the total number the United States has produced since World War II. 8/

During the successful industrialization of East Asia, its government required manufacturing sectors to produce goods for export; it wasn’t enough to just produce for their domestic markets. 9/

This was how they could show they were truly building globally competitive companies and products. If no one wanted to import their products, they knew they weren’t really building successful companies. 10/

As the Trump Administration pursues the noble goal of reindustrializing the United States, passing a simultaneous rule limiting U.S. exports based on American-made ships—ships that today hamper exporters—would be a real self-dealing. 11/

Given what just happened with new tariffs tanking global stock markets, it would be folly for the USTR to move forward with this rule. If we want the United States to be competitive in global manufacturing, we need world-class port infrastructure and logistics connectivity. /12

Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers who just had massive new tariffs imposed on components and machinery from abroad should brace for impact because all indications are this rule is coming on April 17. /

Talk about bull in a China shop .

If this is implemented then no ships to carry US farm goods , coal , LNG .

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/LNG-and-Coal-Face-Dismal-Times-With-Trumps-Port-Levies.html

Across all fields, our linearizations suggest that basins will roll over when approximately 28% of their reserves are produced. Our machine learning models show oil shales are now 28–32% depleted, while gas shales are 30–34% depleted. This points to a slowdown driven by depletion, not price or regulation.

Thanks for this. I am trying to fix the website where you can visually see the title page to these links.

This is a rehash of the current state of the Permian, but worth the read none the less.

Saudi America was coined by Scott Sheffield back in 2016-2017. There have been 60,000 HZ wells drilled in the Permian (including DUC's, dry holes and mechanical failures) and it has produced about 14.5 G BO since 2013. In a little over a decade it is reaching exhustion. Some people believe another 100,000 wells can be drilled in the Permian and another 30 G BO produced. That will not happen short of $150 oil and $10 nagas, sustained, then nobody will be able to afford to use the stuff. The USGS estimated something like 75 G BO of recoverable oil in the Permian; it won't be anywhere close to that. 30 G, maybe.

Shale oil was a speed bump in the road to hydrocarbon depletion, the Permian's roles in that speed bump way over exaggerated.