Mike , In my opinion this deserves a new post . Your call .
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/bye-bye-saudi-america-a464299b5174
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The quote below contradicts the well by well work of Saputra etal where they show the cessation of drilling associated with a rapid cliff falloff, which is apparent from the high decline of existing production. As long as you keep drilling you can hold it up till the end. I know that is not how it is to end-stop drilling overnight, but I don't know why 28% depleted would trigger the rollover either. I made a post on the North Sea and that is about right for that play, a third of the 13,500 wells to date had been drilled when it rolled over.
Across all fields, our linearizations suggest that basins will roll over when approximately 28% of their reserves are produced. Our machine learning models show oil shales are now 28–32% depleted, while gas shales are 30–34% depleted. This points to a slowdown driven by depletion, not price or regulation.