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"U.S. shale has represented the primary source of supply growth for the past decade and a slowdown in growth would risk future price spikes. The last thing incumbent governments want are price spikes, but industry is the same. No one wants price spikes as they choke demand, raise inflation and rates, and ultimately hurt the very sector that people assume benefits." Forbes
Well, shale oil production in the U.S. stopped growing in 2024 almost completely and production plateaued, for the most part. The so called "efficiency gains", as in fewer rigs producing more oil (?!!) was, in fact, related to DUC completions and longer laterals. Had it not been for super long laterals being squeezed into crowed core areas in 2024 U.S. production would have declined.
Big time.
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But this cannot go on, like some ANALYsts predict, because they are running out of room to drill 15,000 foot laterals in densely populated shale basins. Pressure depletion from overdrilling is well underway, liquids production is falling and gassy tight oil wells are turning into oily tight gas wells.
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Nothing in the oil and gas business happens in real time. What you see today in the way of production is a result of operational matters that occured 6-8 months ago. Don't predict tomorrow based on data you see today.
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The materials provided on this site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice. I may make data related mistakes occasionally; if you use my opinions about oil reserves or shale well economics for financial purposes, to buy or sell stocks, your nuts. Don't do that. If I have used a photograph incorrectly it was for educational purposes and I have done my best of to give credit where credit is due. My stories are all true, slightly embellished, perhaps, but true; I don't change names to protect the guilty. I am as accurate as possible about history and historical facts; I work very hard at that.All rights are reserved, whatever that means. Don't blame me, I didn't do it.