Oily Stuff
            Oily News, Analysis & Opinions
      Oily Photographs, History, Videos & Cartoons
Oily Humor & Short Stories  About a Very Long, Oily Life
Stuff To Think About
The more obvious it becomes that U.S. shale oil is depleting, the more often pundits change definitions and move the goal posts. Like break even prices. Or what defines "greater productivity "
Use to be well quality was judged by EURs, then it was 3-year cumprods, then it became 1-year cumprods, now a lot of data sell companies trying to sell their wares say wells are "getting better" based on IP60, or peak production rates 60 days after flowback.
Then those same wells decline 86.5% in 32 months, the fastest they have EVER declined.
I push back against the "abundance" narrative
because it is a lie and America needs to cease ALL exports of hydrocarbons.
America's oil & gas needs to stay in America, For Americans.
" Unfortunately an article by Mike Shellman, which I quickly scanned and hoped to quote is not available anymore. As I recall he indicated that Lea County is on a plateau and that the best drilling areas remained
in Eddy County.
This month’s charts for Lea and Eddy counties show he is bang on." Ovi
Video Stuff
Cartoon Stuff
Quote Stuff
“I think it’s an appropriate reaction by US shale to be miffed,” said Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners. “Not just because Venezuelan production might go up but because the US government, in theory, is going to subsidise that.” He added: “These guys are already worried about price. They live in a country where the president wants the price of their output to go down.”
Here is a data set of tight oil wells drilled in the Delaware Basin HZ play in 2016 carried forward to July 2025.
We're looking at associated gas production and how it held up over the past 10 years. This data set INCLUDES tight gas wells from the oil play with initial GOR over 10:1, including wells in gassy, Culberson, Reeves Counties and western Eddy.
Two things; one, look at GOR in New Mexico. That's mostly Lea County and that is a bad sign for oil production from New Mexico, which we have shown you is already rolling over. GOR is going down in Texas because it is a statistical anomaly from fewer wells being drilled in the Texas Delaware, or Texas is in a more serious state of depletion, or both. Remember, in solution gas shale containers, oil goes up, gas goes up, oil starts down,
gas keeps going up, then it too goes down. Oil goes down, then gas goes down, GOR goes down.
Two: look at total gas volumes for the basin from these wells drilled in 2016. Gas has declined 91% in 10 years.
Are todays wells drilled better than 2016 wells? No, they are not, they are actually worse from a productivity standpoint. We've shown you that.
Expecting associated gas to be a limitless feedstock for LNG exports and AI data centers in the Delaware Basin, with oil prices below $60, is insanity.
Sign In:
Readers can subscribe to the blog to
to receive notices of posts and can become a site member to participate in forum discussions. Sharing your email address would be dishonest and I don't do that kind of stuff. You can unsubscribe anytime, for any reason.
I do this blog stuff for fun, not to make money. I am not trying to sell you anything.
The materials provided on this site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice. I may make data related mistakes occasionally; if you use my opinions about oil reserves or shale well economics for financial purposes, to buy or sell stocks, your nuts. Don't do that. If I have used a photograph incorrectly it was for educational purposes and I have done my best of to give credit where credit is due. My stories are all true, slightly embellished, perhaps, but true; I don't change names to protect the guilty. I am as accurate as possible about history and historical facts; I work very hard at that.All rights are reserved, whatever that means. Don't blame me, I didn't do it.
